Statistics

Sharing Just Enough: The Magic Behind Gaining Privacy while Preserving Utility

April 15, 2025
by Sohail Khan. Netflix knows what you like, but does it need to know your politics too? We often face a frustrating choice: share our data and be tracked, or protect our privacy and lose personalization. But what if there was a third option? This article begins by introducing the concept of the privacy-utility trade-off, then explores the methods behind strategic data distortion, a technique that lets you subtly tweak your data to block sensitive inferences (like political views) while still maintaining useful recommendations. Finally, it looks ahead and advocates for a future where users, not platforms, shape the rules, reclaiming control of their own privacy.

What are Time Series Made of?

December 10, 2024
by Bruno Smaniotto. Trend-cycle decompositions are statistical tools that help us understand the different components of Time Series – Trend, Cycle, Seasonal, and Error. In this blog post, we will provide an introduction to these methods, focusing on the intuition behind the definition of the different components, providing real-life examples and discussing applications.

Language Models in Mental Health Conversations – How Empathetic Are They Really?

December 3, 2024
by Sohail Khan. Language models are becoming integral to daily life as trusted sources of advice. While their utility has expanded from simple tasks like text summarization to more complex interactions, the empathetic quality of their responses is crucial. This article explores methods to assess the emotional appropriateness of these models, using metrics such as BLEU, ROUGE, and Sentence Transformers. By analyzing models like LLaMA in mental health dialogues, we learn that while they suffer through traditional word-based metrics, LLaMA's performance in capturing empathy through semantic similarity is promising. In addition, we must advocate for continuous monitoring to ensure these models support their users' mental well-being effectively.

A Recipe for Reliable Discoveries: Ensuring Stability Throughout Your Data Work

November 19, 2024
by Jaewon Saw. Imagine perfecting a favorite recipe, then sharing it with others, only to find their results differ because of small changes in tools or ingredients. How do you ensure the dish still reflects your original vision? This challenge captures the principle of stability in data science: achieving acceptable consistency in outcomes relative to reasonable perturbations of conditions and methods. In this blog post, I reflect on my research journey and share why grounding data work in stability is essential for reproducibility, adaptability, and trust in the final results.

Exploring Rental Affordability in the San Francisco Bay Area Neighborhoods with R

November 5, 2024
by Taesoo Song. Many American cities continue to face severe rental burdens. However, we rarely examine rental affordability through the lens of quantitative data. In this blog post, I demonstrate how to download and visualize rental affordability data for the San Francisco Bay Area using R packages like `tidycensus` and `sf`. This exercise shows that mapping census data can be a straightforward and powerful way to understand the spatial patterns of housing dynamics and can offer valuable insights for research, policy, and advocacy.

Concepts and Measurements in Social Network Analysis

October 22, 2024
by Christian Caballero. We live in an interconnected world, more so now than ever. Social Network Analysis (SNA) provides a toolkit to study the influence of this interconnectivity. This blog post introduces some key theoretical concepts behind SNA, as well as a family of metrics for measuring influence in a network, known as centrality. These concepts and measurements help form the basis for a theoretically informed study of social relationships in an era where the availability of relational data has dramatically increased thanks to technological advances.

Leveraging Large Language Models for Analyzing Judicial Disparities in China

October 8, 2024
by Nanqin Ying. This study analyzes over 50 million judicial decisions from China’s Supreme People’s Court to examine disparities in legal representation and their impact on sentencing across provinces. Focusing on 290 000 drug-related cases, it employs large language models to differentiate between private attorneys and public defenders and assess their sentencing outcomes. The methodology combines advanced text processing with statistical analysis, using clustering to categorize cases by province and representation, and regression models to isolate the effect of legal representation from factors like drug quantity and regional policies. Findings reveal significant regional disparities in legal access driven by economic conditions, highlighting the need for reforms in China’s legal aid system to ensure equitable representation for marginalized groups and promote transparent judicial data for systemic improvements.

Causal Thinking in Thermal Comfort

September 17, 2024
by Ruiji Sun. We demonstrate the importance of causal thinking by comparing two linear regression approaches used in thermal comfort research: Approach (a), which regresses thermal sensation votes (y-axis) on indoor temperature (x-axis); Approach (b), which does the reverse, regressing indoor temperature (y-axis) on thermal sensation votes (x-axis). From a correlational perspective, they may appear interchangeable, but causal thinking reveals substantial and practical differences between them. Using the same data, we found Approach (b) leads to a 10 °C narrower than the conventionally derived comfort zone using Approach (a). This finding has important implications for occupant comfort and building energy efficiency. We highlight the importance of integrating causal thinking into correlation-based statistical methods, especially given the increasing volume of data in the built environment.

Causal Inference in International Political Economy: Hurdles and Advancements

September 9, 2024
by Yue Lin. What are the key challenges and opportunities of applying experiments in the International Political Economy (IPE) research? In this blog, I reviewed an enduring methodological battle between statistics and experiments, and pointed out that the difficulties of randomization and locating credible counterfactuals have served as main hurdles for IPE scholars to widely adopt experimental tools. However, I further demonstrated some new progress in applying survey, field, and lab experiments in the recent IPE scholarship. I concluded that it is crucial for future researchers to think innovatively about how to combine different research methods to make causal claims in IPE studies.

Minding the Gaps: Pay Equity in California

July 9, 2024
by Tonya D. Lindsey, Ph.D. The gender pay gap continues to reflect that, on average, men outearn women. California is among the states with the smallest pay gaps (outpacing the national number at 13%) and is unique in that it enacted legislation aimed at eliminating pay gaps by sex and race categories. This blog post reflects on California’s pay gap as students study it in an undergraduate social statistics course. Independent variables indicate three theoretical frameworks: 1) human capital, 2) occupational segregation, and 3) discrimination. While the work students do is rigorous using a representative sample of full-time year-round California workers, there remains work to be done and caveats to the data and analyses.