Qualitative Methods

Predicting the Future: Harnessing the Power of Probabilistic Judgements Through Forecasting Tournaments

April 29, 2025
by Christian Caballero. From the threat of nuclear war to rogue superintelligent AI to future pandemics and climate catastrophes, the world faces risks that are both urgent and deeply uncertain. These risks are where traditional data-driven models fall short—there’s often no historical precedent, no baseline data, and no clear way to simulate a future world. In cases like this, how can we anticipate the future? Forecasting tournaments offer one answer, harnessing the wisdom of crowds to generate probabilistic estimates of uncertain future events. By incentivizing accuracy through structured competition and deliberation, these tournaments have produced aggregate predictions of future events that outperform well-calibrated statistical models and teams of experts. As they continue to develop and expand into more domains, they also raise urgent questions about bias, access, and whose knowledge gets to shape our collective sensemaking of the future.

Seyi Olojo

Data Science Fellow 2021-2022
School of Information

Seyi is a PhD Student in the School of Information and is a member of the Algorithmic Fairness and Opacity Group. Her research broadly explores the problem space of digital memory, specifically the social discourse surrounding algorithms, ethics, and engagement. Additionally, her work often explores histories of quantification and the politics of categories within emerging technologies. She uses a mixed methods approach to research; this includes ethnography, interviews, grounded theory, surveys, data analysis and values-based design. Here at the D-lab, she leads the qualitative...

Sahiba Chopra

Data Science Fellow 2024-2025
Haas School of Business

I'm a PhD student in the Management and Organizations (Macro) group at Berkeley Haas. I have a diverse professional background, primarily as a data scientist across numerous industries, including fintech, cleantech, and media. I hold a BA in Economics from the University of Maryland, an MS in Applied Economics from the University of San Francisco, and an MS in Business Administration from UC Berkeley.

My research focuses on the intersection of inequality, technology, and the labor market. I am particularly interested in understanding how to reduce inequality in...

Elijah Mercer

Data Science Fellow 2024-2025
School of Information

Elijah, originally from Newark, New Jersey, now resides in San Francisco, California, dedicated to social and juvenile justice. With a Criminology degree from American University, he began as a research intern at the Investigative Reporting Workshop, focusing on the Digital Divide.

Teaching in Baltimore with Teach for America reinforced his belief in research and data for marginalized communities. In roles at the Coalition Against Insurance Fraud, New York Police Department, and San Francisco District Attorney’s Office, Elijah used data to combat crime. Now...

Navigating AI Tools in Open Source Contributions: A Guide to Authentic Development

December 17, 2024
by Sahiba Chopra. The rise of ChatGPT has transformed how developers approach their work - but it might be hurting your reputation in the open-source community. While AI can supercharge your productivity, knowing when not to use it is just as crucial as knowing how to use it effectively. This guide reveals the unspoken rules of AI usage in open source, helping you navigate the fine line between leveraging AI and maintaining authenticity. Learn when to embrace AI tools and when to rely on your own expertise, plus get practical tips for building trust in the open-source community.

Looking Ahead: How Adolescents’ Consideration of Future Consequences Shapes Their Developmental Outcomes

March 25, 2025
by Elaine Luo. Adolescents constantly balance immediate impulses with long-term goals. Our research explored how adolescents differ in their tendency to think about immediate versus future consequences, and how these differences relate to academic performance, stress, and perceived life chances. Using Latent Profile Analysis, we identified three distinct groups: Indifferent (low consideration overall), Future-Focused (prioritizing future outcomes), and Dual-Focused (high consideration of both immediate and future outcomes). Results indicated the Dual-Focused adolescents had higher academic achievement, whereas the Future-Focused group perceived the most positive life prospects. A discussion on practical implications and future research direction for supporting balanced decision-making among adolescents is also provided.

Kamya Yadav

Senior Data Science Fellow 2024-2025, Data Science Fellow 2023-2024
Political Science

Kamya is a third year PhD student in the Department of Political Science. Using multimethod research, she studies gender, representation, and political parties in India to understand the barriers and pathways to women's political participation and representation. She has a BA in Politics from Princeton University.

Nimita Gaggar

Consultant
Public Health

Passionate and driven Public Health graduate student at UC Berkeley with a strong background in program management and a relentless pursuit of excellence. I have 5+ years of experience in program management and operations in the healthcare industry. My academic journey at UC Berkeley has equipped me with a multifaceted skill set, blending strategic thinking, data-driven decision-making, and effective communication. I thrive in fast-paced, dynamic environments and have a proven ability to lead cross-functional teams toward project success.

Claudia von Vacano, Ph.D.

Founding Executive Director, P.I., Research Director, FSRDC

Dr. Claudia von Vacano is the Founding Executive Director and Senior Research Associate of D-Lab and Digital Humanities at Berkeley and is on the boards of the Social Science Matrix and Berkeley Center for New Media. She has worked in policy and educational administration since 2000, and at the UC Office of the President and UC Berkeley since 2008. She received a Master’s degree from Stanford University in Learning, Design, and Technology. Her doctorate is in Policy, Organizations, Measurement, and Evaluation from UC Berkeley. Her expertise is in organizational theory and...

Fritz_X_DargesBlue42… Who Are You?

January 14, 2025
by Jonathan Pérez. Reflecting on the complexities of the human experience is paramount to conducting research. Jonathan Pérez, through his exploration of a conspiracy subreddit, reflects on his experience trying to find the human behind the datum. Jonathan critiques the harmful effects of dehumanizing rhetoric and the researcher’s responsibility to navigate ethical implications. In doing so, he establishes three guiding rules to support researchers seeking to humanize their analysis: 1) a researcher must always find the story behind the data; 2) a researcher must protect themselves; 3) a researcher must still humanize participants (even those who perpetuate harmful narratives).